September 17, 2014
September rental data based on 9/5 data from RLS. What do these charts and diagrams mean?
- Rental Price Distribution: The sweet spot for rentals. A renter with a budge of $3400-$3500/month had the most available options in the past 30 days.
- Average Rental Price for 1-bedroom & 2-bedroom Maps: One- and two-bedroom units have the highest demand in New York City. This is one-level deeper than a rental price distribution in the sense that it breaks the down the average by location.
- Average Rental Price by Neighborhood: This is a chart that breaks down prices by neighborhood as well as by number of bedrooms, with each number representing a sub-market.
- Average Rental Price by ZIP: Same idea as #3 above, except ZIP codes have hard boundaries whereas neighborhood can be ambiguously defined. However, distortions can still exist. For example, in UES, two properties in the same zip code can have material differences in pricing, if one is significantly further away from the subway and/or Central Park and the other is not.
- Geographic distribution of rental closes by ZIP code map: Shows where rental activities happened in the past 30 days.
- The data represents historical averages (of past 30 days) and does not imply future trends. Rental demand correlates heavily with time of year.
- For specific rental listing valuations, it is more relevant to pick out similarly spec’d properties, such as those with similar locations, building amenities, age of building, floor in the building, etc.
- These numbers are for reference only. For these numbers to reflect a theoretical normalized value, many underlying assumptions are required, too many to list here. For example, it must assume material differences in properties in the same ZIP codes can be diversified away when the volume is significantly high. The assumption may or may not be true.
- Do not sue me, if I missed anything important in my methodology. I welcome feedbacks to help me refine or add reports and analyses.
Source: RLS, trailing 30-day average of rental closes; the data is consisted of rentals in condos & townhouses, and NOT in condops or coop.
September 5, 2014
This month, I am making the market intelligence that I normally prepare for my valued clients available for public use. Some quick observations:
- In Manhattan, one-bedroom are closed at a price range of between $700K-900K. Two-bedrooms peak at $1.7m.
- Eyeballing it, most of the closings happen in Upper East, Upper West, middle of Manhattan as far as 14th Street, and downtown in the Financial District, Tribecca and Battery Park. Harlem is also bustling. The only section that is seeing a dearth of activites is the area below 14th Street & above Chamber Street.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with me, I perform this analysis at the beginning of every month. The analysis is based on closed sales in the past 180 days. As with any statistical analysis there are many assumptions that we need to be aware of:
- Historical pattern does not imply future trend
- Low number of transactions in a particular zip code or neighborhood can skew the results vs. fair market price
- The definitions of the neighborhood can be ambiguous and can skew the results based on neighborhood; for example, a property in Morningside Height will sometimes be marketed as a property in Upper West Side, and a property in East Harlem can be marketed as a property in Upper East Side. I take them as they come from the database.
- Price per area is not necessarily a fair indicator because each property can be very different from one another. For true comps, we need to look at specific properties with similar year built, set of amenities, etc. I am publishing these results because many people are asking for these numbers.
Closed Listings of Manhattan Condos within past 180 days as of 9/4/2014
Price data is for reference only. Data source: RLS
September 4, 2014
Sexy newsletter from the editor of the House of Red Bricks – there are no secrets or gossips. Only good clean fun.